If you’re worried that higher fertility among immigrants could permanently outpace that of natives (in this case, Italians), eventually resulting in population replacement, the latest evidence offers a different - and encouraging - story. Immigrant women did begin the 2000s with markedly higher fertility - about one extra child per woman - but their rates have been falling far faster than those of natives. The gap has been narrowing steadily and, on current trends, is on course to close in the mid‑2030s. In short: immigrant fertility in Italy is normalizing toward native levels rather than pulling away.
The Data
I downloaded the data from ISTAT (data.istat.it), and analyzed annual fertility rates (Total Fertility Rate, TFR) from 2003 to 2023, distinguishing between natives and foreign-born women. TFR measures the average number of children a woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates continued.
Natives (Italian-born women): TFR started at about 1.3 in 2003 and declined only slightly, by around 0.1 children per woman over 20 years.
Foreigners: TFR started much higher, at about 2.8 in 2003. However, it declined steeply - nearly one full child fewer per woman over the same period.
The chart shows TFR trends by macro-region (different colors) and population group (natives vs. foreigners, with solid vs. dashed lines). Across all macro-regions, foreigners consistently start with higher fertility but exhibit a much sharper decline than natives. Natives’ lines are nearly flat, while foreigners’ dashed lines slope steeply downward, gradually approaching natives’ levels.
Statistical Analysis
I estimated regression models of TFR on time (year) separately for natives and foreigners, and then jointly with interaction terms.
Simple Model (Natives only)
lm(TFR ~ Year, data = natives_only)
Intercept (2003): 1.305
Slope: –0.0049 children per year (p = 0.0083)
Over 20 years: decline of ~0.10 children per woman.
Interaction Model (Natives + Foreigners)
lm(TFR ~ Year * Group, data = all_data)
Natives’ slope: –0.0049 (p = 0.11, not significant once both groups are modeled together).
Foreigners’ slope: –0.049 (highly significant).
Difference in slopes (interaction term coefficient): –0.0446 (p < 0.001).
In other words, foreigners’ fertility is declining nearly ten times faster than that of natives!
Still reasons for concern
While the convergence is striking, it does not erase Italy’s deeper demographic challenge. Native fertility remains stuck around 1.2–1.3 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Even as immigrant fertility normalizes, the country as a whole is still on a path of population decline and rapid aging.
At the same time, convergence does not mean immigration stops shaping Italy’s demographics:
Continued inflows. Large numbers of new arrivals, many in their childbearing years, can increase the absolute number of births to foreign mothers even if their fertility rates decline.
Age structure. Immigrants are generally younger than natives, so a greater share of women are in peak childbearing ages.
Naturalization and classification. Children born in Italy to foreign parents may be counted as “natives,” which obscures the ongoing demographic contribution of immigration.
In short: the narrowing fertility gap reduces the per‑woman difference but does not neutralize the demographic weight of ongoing immigration.
Deep Dive (for subscribers): When Will Natives and Foreigners Converge?
Premium readers will also find a projection of when natives’ and foreigners’ fertility rates are expected to converge.