I read that the decline, generally, is also explained by the fact that about 50% of women above the age of 30 who don’t have children at that age never end up having children. Do you think that is true for Italy? And what does that say about the average family size of those who actually end up having children?
I don’t have the right data to estimate that directly as you’d need cohort data tracking parity by age to know how many women childless at 30 eventually have a first birth. Where did you get that 50% figure from?
My analysis supports the idea that the recent decline is not explained by postponement, and first births are falling. That suggests delayed births are not being fully recuperated, so being childless at 30 is increasingly associated with not having children at all rather than just delaying.
I think it might be Lyman Stone who said it, but since I mostly listen to podcasts on this subject, I cannot point to the exact show or episode. But when I ran the statement through Grok, it says that it is quite substantiated.
I read that the decline, generally, is also explained by the fact that about 50% of women above the age of 30 who don’t have children at that age never end up having children. Do you think that is true for Italy? And what does that say about the average family size of those who actually end up having children?
I don’t have the right data to estimate that directly as you’d need cohort data tracking parity by age to know how many women childless at 30 eventually have a first birth. Where did you get that 50% figure from?
My analysis supports the idea that the recent decline is not explained by postponement, and first births are falling. That suggests delayed births are not being fully recuperated, so being childless at 30 is increasingly associated with not having children at all rather than just delaying.
I think it might be Lyman Stone who said it, but since I mostly listen to podcasts on this subject, I cannot point to the exact show or episode. But when I ran the statement through Grok, it says that it is quite substantiated.